Elections 2024: LaLota, Avlon Tack to Center in House Race with National Implications

While eastern Suffolk County has gotten decidedly redder over the last few election cycles, newly minted Democratic congressional nominee John Avlon is poised to mount a stiff challenge for U.S. Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Rocky Point) this Election Day.

A former CNN political reporter, Avlon checks a lot of the right boxes. He’s telegenic and well spoken with good political instincts — and his relatively moderate center-left policies are tailored to appeal to a congressional district that narrowly favored Donald Trump in the 2020 election, but tilts more heavily Republican among voters west of the Shinnecock Canal.

In the June 25 Democratic primary, Avlon crushed former Stony Brook University chemistry professor Nancy Goroff by a whopping 40% margin. In 2020, she secured the Democratic nomination, but was beaten handily by then-incumbent East End Congressman Lee Zeldin, who prevailed by 10 points.

Avlon’s primary advertising message consisted largely of framing Goroff’s double-digit loss to Zeldin in 2020 as proof that she couldn’t win in a battle with LaLota in 2024. Goroff countered by assailing Avlon’s Democratic bona fides, citing his previous work as a speechwriter for former New York City Mayor (and punching bag of the left) Rudolph Giuliani. In one of the better lines of the primary season — as least as far as Democratic voters were concerned — Avlon parried Goroff’s attacks by quipping, “I worked for Rudy when he was sane.”

Now running with the benefits of incumbency, LaLota is a formidable candidate in his own right. In 2022, he cruised to a 10+-point victory over his Democratic challenger Bridget Fleming, easily claiming the seat Zeldin had vacated to pursue an unsuccessful bid for governor.

LaLota also stands to get a slight boost from a newly redrawn congressional map. The map, which went through a series of legal challenges and tweaks over the last two years, finally passed the New York State Senate and Assembly — both Democratic controlled — with a handful of Republican votes in each chamber and was signed into law by Gov. Kathy Hochul in February.

The state’s 1st Congressional District, where Avlon hopes to unseat LaLota, shifts a smidge to the right after redistricting. Under the new map, a bit more of eastern Suffolk moves from the 2nd District to District 1. Though LaLota will happily accept a few more likely GOP voters into his district, U.S. Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-Sayville), who represents the neighboring district, will not be thrilled to lose a swath of reliably red constituents.

MOVING TO THE MIDDLE

Presidential election year congressional races often tend to focus on national issues, particularly when the U.S. House and U.S. Senate are both widely assumed to be up for grabs, as they are in 2024. It’s also common for congressional candidates from both sides of the aisle to tack toward the mainstream center in swing districts.

Both of those dynamics are at play in the Avlon/LaLota matchup. In fact, both candidates appear to be specifically courting what they see as the bipartisan, common sense vote.

In a press release from late-May, LaLota highlighted recognition of his bipartisan credentials. The congressman noted that he was named “one of the most bipartisan Members of Congress” by the Lugar Center and Georgetown University, adding that he was ranked “the 65th most bipartisan member of the House and the 15th most bipartisan freshman of either party.”

LaLota said, “As a member of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and the For Country Caucus, I’ve championed collaboration and common sense. In my first year, I’ve had four of my bills pass the House with bipartisan support, secured over $150 million in federal funding for Suffolk County, and supported key legislation to improve the lives of Americans. I have worked tirelessly to find common ground.”

As he stakes out his positions as the newly nominated Democratic standard bearer for District 1, Avlon is also quick to talk about the importance of bipartisanship — and to appeal to the common sense voter. In fact, the first words visitors to the Democratic challenger’s website see present a bipartisan vision for the country.

“We need to break the hyper-partisan fever that’s gripped America and build a new kind of politics based on common facts, common ground and common sense problem solving,” Avlon says. “The policies I believe in are focused on how we can reunite as a nation while rebuilding the middle class right here on Long Island.” 

TOP NATIONAL ISSUES

Like the vast majority of Democrats running for election this cycle, Avlon recognizes that in a post Roe v. Wade world, abortion is an extremely powerful issue — and he hasn’t shied away from using it as a cudgel with which to attack LaLota.

“Nick LaLota cheered the repeal of Roe and said he wants states to go further,” Avlon says on his campaign website, linking directly to archived quotes from his opponent.

“The recent Supreme Court decision to allow states and their voters, not an unelected federal court, to dictate abortion policy is a step in the right direction,” LaLota says in the archived quote, adding that, “Life is sacred and our government has an obligation to protect the unborn.”

LaLota clearly recognizes his — and many of his Republican colleagues from more moderate districts — vulnerabilities on the abortion issue. His current policy position is more subtle and equivocating than Avlon claims, even taking pains to cite not one, but two former Democratic presidents as part of his thinking.

“I would not vote for a federal abortion ban,” LaLota says. “My stance on abortion is much like that of former President Clinton: I do not oppose it in the first trimester or in cases of rape, incest, or when the mother’s life is at risk.”

LaLota adds that he does not support attempted bans on mifepristone, a commonly used abortion drug. “I was one of only 12 House Republicans to block my party’s agriculture spending bill because it would have banned the abortion pill mifepristone from being mailed and dispensed at retail pharmacies,” he notes.

Mirroring Republican talking points, which attempt to paint Democrats as extremists on abortion policy, LaLota adds that, “my Democratic opponents hold views on abortion that are far more extreme than those of the Democratic Party during Clinton or Obama’s terms. They argue for no restrictions on abortion whatsoever, even up to the 40th week when the life of the mother is not at risk.”

Avlon’s position on abortion squares with traditional Democratic orthodoxy: “The decision to have an abortion should be between a woman, her doctor, and her God — not the government,” he says. “But the fact is that young women today are growing up with fewer rights than their mothers did. Trump’s Supreme Court appointees took away the constitutional right to reproductive freedom after 50 years of Roe v. Wade — and they lied to the American people about their determination to do it.”

While Republicans in swing districts find themselves playing defense on abortion, they see immigration policy as a political winner.

For example, last September, LaLota, a member of the House Committee on Homeland Security, introduced the No Bailout for Sanctuary Cities Act, which he said would have “prevented federal funds from being used to bail out sanctuary cities, including New York City, for a migrant crisis they helped create.”

Original cosponsors of the legislation included fellow New York swing district Republicans Garbarino, U.S. Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) and U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Hudson Valley).

“New York Democrats are free to keep their failed sanctuary city policies which are helping to cause New York City’s migrant crisis and the $12 billion Mayor Adams says it will cost,” said LaLota. “But these officials, who can repeal those costly policies any day, cannot expect other states’ taxpayers to fund their indiscretion while their policies remain in place.”

As LaLota has done on abortion, Avlon has staked out a position toward the middle on immigration policy. As a CNN commentator, he called the border situation a “humanitarian crisis” and referred to it as a “political vulnerability” for President Joe Biden and the Democrats.”

In an article written for CNN in January, Avlon asked, “Do House Republicans really want to solve the border crisis?” The article took Speaker of the House Mike Johnson to task for refusing to bring a bipartisan Senate deal on immigration to the House floor.

“Apparently, the art of the deal only applies if Trump gets credit,” Avalon wrote. “The MAGA crew would rather fear-monger and fundraise off an alleged invasion at the Southern border than stop it — because they’re afraid President Joe Biden or Democrats might get some credit for helping to stem the tide of migrants trying to cross our border.”

As important as they are in the current political landscape, abortion and immigration are obviously not the only issues in play this election cycle. Inflation and taxes, the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, Biden’s debate performance, Trump’s legal issues, climate change, crime and other concerns will all play key roles in voters’ decision-making this November.

In a crucial swing district like NY-01, look for Avlon and LaLota to continue to tack toward the center, appeal to the common sense voter and focus most of their energies on the issues they think will get them across the finish line.